Emerging Market Turmoil

With many traders away from their desks for summer vacation, the developed market is quiet. Traders in Turkey and Argentina enjoy no such luxury. Orderboard & Flow Traders in the northern hemisphere aren't terribly motivated to take on risk in the final weeks of summer. Especially given developing events in the emerging market. Turkey Events in the former Byzantine empire center around a US expatriate...
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Business Cycle Basics

Business Cycle Basics

How to Tie Together the Business Cycle and Asset Allocation In a previous article, we explored a basic way of finding the optimal portfolio composition, given certain constraints and certain assets. In this article, we shall explore a simple way to understand which group of assets might be better suited to enter into the optimization process. We will do this asset selection process based on our beliefs of the current state of the business cycle. (more…)...
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The Week Ahead

Markets ended Friday on a positive note with most major market centers closing in the green thanks to strong Non-Farm Payroll data. Wall Street is in the midst of earnings season with big names like Coca-Cola, Disney, Time Warner, General Motors, & Allergan due to report this week. On the data front we have Australian Retail Sales due at 7:30p EST with M/M expected to print 0.3 & Q/Q 0.9. Ahead of the European open we’ll get German Industrial Orders and Eurozone Sentix Index with expectations of 0.50 and 17.40 respectively. Tuesday we’ll get German Industrial Production, Japanese Leading Indicators, and UK home price data, with Redbook and Consumer Credit data from the US. Wednesday will deliver US mortgage market data, Canadian Housing Starts, and Japanese Machine Orders. Japanese Corporate Goods Pricing, Australian Mortgage, and Chinese Money supply lands Thursday, with University of Michigan Consumer Sentient and Canadian...
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Sentiment Report

Top Stories FOMC - The FOMC will conclude their two day policy meeting tomorrow at 2pm EST. No change in rates are expected but traders will look to the policy statement for changes to the outlook. No press conference associated with this meeting. With no rate change expected, this is likely to be a non-event and thus has no material impact on sentiment at this time. Eurozone Data – Improvements in Euro area inflation and employment data are creating a positive sentiment environment for euro denominated assets as the ECB is expected to continue bond-buying despite the improving macro picture. Euro zone Jan inflation 1.8 pct, highest since Feb 2013 Core inflation stable at 0.9 pct Euro zone Q4 GDP growth 0.5 pct, as expected Euro zone Dec unemployment 9.6 pct, more than 7-year low Overall Sentiment Impact of +1. Japan – PM Shinzo Abe is scheduled to meet with President Trump on Feb 10 to discuss a trade deal. An early draft of a document, called "U.S.-Japan Growth...
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